Is book value still reliable in investing?

Found an useful article from TheStar, to share with all fellow traders.

Even though we are close to the period of year-end window dressing by institutional fund managers, the recent low market trading volume may imply that a lot of retailers are still quite concerned over the US' financial health, especially on the subprime issue.

After the implementation of new Financial Reporting Standards on Jan 1, 2005, the book value of a company has become more reflective of the actual cost of the shareholders’ wealth in the company as a result of a lot of write-downs and impairment on certain assets for some listed companies over the past three years.

Price-to-book value (P/BV) is derived by dividing the market price with book value per share (BV per share = shareholders’ funds/total outstanding shares of the company).

Alternatively, some analysts may choose to use price-over-net tangible asset per share (P/NTA) instead because the NTA per share provides the total value of the assets net of all intangible assets (mainly goodwill) and all liabilities before dividing the amount by the number of shares. In this article, we will use the term P/BV to reflect the general concept of either P/BV or P/NTA.

How to use P/BV

P/BV reflects the number of times the share of a company is being traded versus the owner’s cost. For example, if Company A has a BV per share of RM2 and its market price is trading at RM2.40, its P/BV will be calculated at RM2.40 divided by RM2 or 1.2 times of its BV per share. According to Benjamin Graham’s defensive value investing method, we should target for stocks that are selling at prices below 1.5 times BV.

In general, we may use this “1.5 times” as a basic guide, but it’s better not to treat it as a foolproof number. In Malaysia, there are many good companies with a P/BV of more than 1.5 times.

The main reason for high price with low BV is because these companies tend to reward their investors with high dividend returns. As a result, their BV always stays low but their dividend yield (DY) is much greater than fixed deposit rates or the industry average. Hence, there is no fixed multiple for this method. The appropriate multiple will depend on how we view the quality of the company’s management and its earnings potential.

In principle, it is quite impossible to buy a stock that is selling at below its BV per share. If the market price is too low compared with its BV, the owner may come in to buy back the shares, as the company’s worth is much more than the market value.

However, in Bursa Malaysia, there are certain companies that are always selling below their BV because the general public has less confidence in the quality of its management. Hence, we should not buy a stock just because it has a low P/BV.

According to Warren Buffett’s “cigar butt” approach, a cigar butt found on the street that has only one puff left in it may not offer much of a smoke, meaning the so-called “bargain purchase” may not turn out to be such a steal.

Most of the time, a company is selling at a distress level due to weak earnings prospects, and any further deterioration in earnings may deplete its remaining BV. Thus, Buffett postulated that we should buy stocks based on their earnings potential instead of their attractive BV.

P/BV is an appropriate measure of the net asset value of firms that hold liquid assets primarily. The value of liquid asset is more definite than the real property value. Examples of such companies are those in finance, investment, insurance, and banking.

As long as these financial institutions make enough provisions for all their bad and doubtful loans, their real asset values should be near to their BVs. As a result, we will notice that it is quite difficult to find a banking stock selling near or below its BV. Most of the time, they are trading at a premium to their BVs.

(This article is available on TheStar, http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2007/12/5/business/19662755&sec=business, by Ooi Kok Hwa, who is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

KLCI TO SUPPORT 1355

Refer to our previous KLCI chart, KLCI did break out the ascending triangle. Today, looking at the chart again, it seems like topping formation. 1355 is the support line for this ascending triangle breakout. If KLCI is sustainable at 1355, the upward momentum is intact. Once KLCI dips below 1355, the correction sets in.

KLCI BREAK UP OR BREAK DOWN - DAY 2

Day 2 monitoring on potential annulling break up. Sustainability of KLCI above ascending triangle is important to drive KLCI to 1400. Any negative issues pushing down KLCI below the support line (the resistance of ascending triangle will be turned to support line once KLCI stay above it) will demolish the upward momentum.

So, how you read today?

KLCI BREAK UP OR BREAK DOWN

KLCI has come to its turning point either to break explosively up or break seriously down. 1330 is the upper resistance, 1310 is the lower support.

Meanwhile the Break Up will lead the overall market rallies up to 1400, the Break Down has the downward pressure to 1150.

Unless God can tell us the direction it is, we are all forecast based on the probability. The factors to be considered are local issues and foreign bourses.

So, how you read?

CORRECTION AFTER REBOUND FROM MAJOR SELLING DOWN

Correction is always followed by the rebound after major selling down.

The major selling down was heavy last week, especially on last Friday. Market started to strongly rebound around 1 1/2 before market closing on 17/8. The rebound continued to climb, hit the bouncing peak today morning.

Human physchology can explain this scenario. Major selling down has risen attention from punters to long term investors. Go and asking around the investors, you may find some long term investors were so worried on thier shares, disposed their shares last week afraid of everything back to square.

Many start to whispering on 1997 crisis. The major seling down pattern, all way down without a rebound, is alike 1997 crisis. Will it be crisis? Will all my shares 'kaput'? Investors are so worried their paper gain gone and thier paper loss widen.

Though our research shows it seems a different scenario of this major correction compared to 1997 crisis, as sub-prime issue yet to stailised, many will choose to temporarily aside. Therefore, market does always have correction after rebound from major selling down.

Rebound hit a peak today morning. Using T4 Shaking Out Theory(Shaking out Contra Players), the market may only bounce back again Friday or next Monday afternoon.

We are now waiting to fishing again at low. If our theory is right, the correction is just started today, will last for few more market days.

Happy Fishing to All !!!

COUNTER TO WATCH - 801

Counter To Watch on 1 Aug 2007

POTENTIAL BREAK OUT MOMENTUM
AFFIN(5185) & AFFIN-WC (5185Y)

HAVE YOU TAKEN PROFIT BEFORE 528 - 601 CORRECTION ?

The correction we are expecting, i.e. 528 - 601 (28/5/2007 to 1/6/2007) is near.

On 515 (15/5/2007), our market did provide a buy low opportunity, unfortunately, broad market was so weak to spring up except KLCI, which shot up 20.34 on 522 (22/5/2007). Today the bad days are near, the market is expected to be cloudy and windy throughout next week.

As the traders, we are now ready with cash cow on hand to aim for buy low next week. Our broad market shows the downward move rather than upward move. No doubt there are some selected stock play such as WELLI, KENCANA and so on. Did you able to catch them at low? If you did, you are practising the right trading method, congratulations.

If you didn't, you may consider to try buy on weakness method which we believe, next week will be the opportunity. This is what our strategy for recent trade.

515, CHANCE TO COLLECT LOW AGAIN

OUR STRATEGY : BUY ON DIP TODAY, 15 MAY, THE BROAD MARKET IS FORECASTED TO SRPING UP A BIT WITHIN THESE 2 WEEKS. NO DOUBT KLCI IS THE BENCHMARK, BUT WE ARE IGNORING THE IMPACT OF KLCI THIS ROUND.

HUBLINE (7013)

Have been wathcing this counter lately. RM 2.80 is the most important resistance to break, watch out.

BUY OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORT TERM PLAYER

Dow Jones lost 146 points overnight, KLCI today once lossed 19 points in the morning, KLCI lossed 8.88 for midday closing.

Technically, today market provides buying opportunity for short term player. Opportunity for broad market to rebound is high next week. Our strategy is collecting today, and aiming for taking profit for 10% capital gain within next 2 weeks.

The last week of May/Early week of June is the awaited entry point, we are waiting for mid-term investment positioning. Ensuring ample cash cow before hand, grab the buy low opportunity for 2nd liner stocks.

MARKET SLOW DOWNTREND

Our latest finding shows the overall market is heading downward except KLCI. If one counter rebound, take profit first, keep the cash cow on hand wait for End of May/Early of June to buy low is our strategy.

MARKET CORRECTION END MAY/EARLY JUNE

CI climbs to New High, break 1994 high (1,332). Limited selective counters such as LBS and QUEST going up slowly. 2nd & 3rd liners go up and down, ding and dong, going no where. These few days, market is slightly correct, looks like correction, but it is not. The market may have chance to rebound only within 2 weeks, eventually the real correction is forecasted to set in in last week of May/first week of June.

We would say our strategy is, if one counter gives 10% capital gain within next 2 weeks, we would take profit, keep our cash cow, waiting for the real correction in the last week of May/first week of June to buy low again.

CI TARGET 1,600 - 1,800

Our market has continued its strong bull momentum, our research shows CI may hit 1,600 - 1,800. Comparing to regional performance, CI is still considered laggard. This year, CI may extend its bullish to catch up the regional level.

Fundamentally, promising economic growth and corporate earnings are relected on Bursa Malaysia which is the barometer of Malaysia Economy. Technically, market is in the accumulating phase where the broad market may make another upside move within 2 months' time.

WE ARE NOW BACK AT http://STOCTOUCH.blogspot.com

First of all, we would like to thank a supporter who emailed us and helped us to get rid of our blog address problem. We are now back at http://STOCTOUCH.blogspot.com as usual.

In here, we would like to share our view on the market as well. The quite market these few weeks shows the Accumulating Phase. Which in turn, we do think, there may be a market rally after this Accumulating Period. Before any aggresive market rally, take profit whenever one gives capital gain around 10% may be strategised.

Our monitor list : FARLIM, KIMBLE, BURSA-CD

MARKET CORRECTION

CI formed Double Top at 1332, Market is expected to correct towards this week end. Market is likely to resume the uptrend next week.

We do feel pity of losing our original blog address, i.e. http://STOCTOUCH.blogspot.com The transition of Blogger Account has resulted the publishing error of our blog to http://STOCTOUCH1.blogspot.com as you are visiting now. Due to no technical support by Blogger, we has to publish our blog to http://STOCTOUCH1.blogspot.com until further notice.

We do appreciate if any fellow know how to solve this problem contacting us at stoctouch@gmail.com